Wow, what do writers have to do to sell their newspaper? Write negative articles and headlines? It drives me nuts reading the headlines to these articles:
Hawaii Jobless Rate Continues To Rise (it’s the highest in 4 years!)
Hawaii Businesses Brace For Downturn
Hawaii Forelcosures Slowly Building
If I read these headlines, I would think we are in serious trouble. Here is the funny part from the article about unemployment:
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 3.2 percent in February, up from 3.1 percent in January, the state Department of Labor and Industrial Relations reported yesterday.
Lets see what is really going on:
In regards to unemployment, Hawaii has the 6th lowest unemployment. In a pdf I found, Hawaii’s unemployment rate (only could find non-seasonally adjusted) is at 2.5% (3.1% adjusted). That is half of what it was during the worst economic time since 1990 (4.9% unemployment in 1996 & 1998) So we have to double the number of unemployed persons to reach that level. In compared to the current U.S. unemployment rate (4.8%) we are very low, and 4.8% is not very high. In 1982 unemployment was 9.7% nationally. When unemployment in Hawaii was 2.7%, just a few months ago, the comment from some economist was, “Anyone who wants a job, has a job. The only people unemployed are those that don’t want to be employed.” Companies were having to go out of the state to fill jobs.
So, when I read Hawaii Jobless Rate Continues To Rise (Highest in 4 years), I say, “Well no kidding. It couldn’t have gotten much better than it was, and it still ain’t bad.” Why must the article be written to sound negative?
In regards to Business Owners Brace For Downtourn: Yes there are some good points, but we are coming off one of the best economic booms in history, and here is the quote I like the best:
A business owner survey released by Bank of Hawaii last week shows those who say prospects for the economy are much higher or somewhat higher in the next 12 months stood at 7.5 percent when the poll was taken in February.
That was the lowest total since one of the twice-yearly surveys in March 1997 and compares with the nearly 61 percent response found in August 2004.
Funny. We are coming off one of the best economic booms in history and there are trying to compare this survey to one at the height of the boom market. Also, they only mention the numbers for people who feel the economy will be somewhat better. I don’t need a survey to figure that answer out. How about the numbersfor those who feel their indusrty will be about the same (41.2%), about the same for Hawaii’s economy (34.9%), a somewhat lower level in their industry (31.6%), a somewhat lower level in the Hawaii economy (50%), and much lower activity in their industry (6.1%), and in Hawaii (7.5%).
At the same time, Bank of Hawaii found the business owners were more confident about their own prospects. Roughly one-third expected higher sales and slightly more owners expected to increase capital expenditures than those who would lower them.
For Hawaii Foreclosures Slowly Building: Let me just say this: Oahu has the 4th lowest number of foreclosures out of 100 metropolitan cities int he U.S. Foreclosures in Hawaii amount to .16% of all Hawaii households. Compare that to Detroit, MI at 4.9%. That is higher than our unemployment!
I am not saying things are all rosey. They aren’t bad, though and I feel news companies can be part of the blame for the lack of consumer confidence often.
