June’s market stats for Oahu are out.  So what is going on in the market?

Well if you read the Honolulu Advertiser then, June Oahu Median Home Price falls 8.8% to $625,000.  (When did the Honolulu Advertiser report the news like Fox News?)  Harvey Shapiro says, Housing Prices Hold in June.  The Pacific Business News writes, Oahu Home Sales, Prices Fell In June.

So what is the story?

For the entire first half of this year, the median prices have been $629,000 and $330,000, respectively. The median price of a single-family home has decreased by 2.5%, but the condominium price has increased since the same time period a year ago by 1.5%.

You can view the entire June Market Stats here.  To view all past monthly and quarterly market stats go to the Resource Center.

On page 3 of 20 are the Year-To-Date figures.  These figures are much more accurate then comparing a single month this year to the same single month last year. The number of sales for SFH’s is down 25.7% Y-T-D and for condos is down 27.5% Y-T-D.  The median sales price for a SFH is down 2.9% to $629,000 and for condos is up 1.5% to $330,000.

*Several economist predicted our market will balance out and stay steady at 8,000 units sold.  That is the number we are anticipated to hit this year for total number of sales down from our peak of 13,000 units.

on page 18 of 20 we see the Months of Inventory Remaining.  This gives us an indication of the strength or weakness of a market and if it is a buyers or sellers market.  According to the National Association or Realtors, a balanced market is 6-7 months of inventory.   The Months of Inventory Remaining for SFH’s in June was 8.3 and for condos was 7.0.  A balanced market for condos and a slight buyers market for SFH’s.

The $1.0 million plus properties are the highest with 15 months of inventory on the market currently.

Here we go with another month of market stats to look at.  The Oahu market is very interesting at the present time.  With home prices falling around the country, it is amazing to see how well Oahu has held up.  We continue to see the same trend that has gone on since the begining of the year with the number of sales continuing to decrease, while the median sales prices hold firm.  I will also highlight a few items separate of the stats in this article that may be of interest to you.

….May housing statistics…… showed the continuing downward trend for sales on O`ahu. Dana Chandler, President the Board, said, “We continue to have a decline in buying demand for residential properties in the O`ahu housing market, but the median prices have been holding up remarkably well. The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sales has been rising and while this could lead to weaker prices, it hasn’t occurred yet. This continues to be a stable environment for both buyers and sellers.”

Here are several articles that relate to May’s stats:
Harvey Shapiro’s Summary
Housing Prices Stable But Sales Plummet (Honolulu Advertiser)
Home Prices Steady As Sales Drop (Honolulu Star Bulletin)

** The newspapers describe this month compared to the same month last year.  I will cover the year to date numbers from this year to last (Jan. 1, 2008 - May 31, 2008 vs Jan. 1 2007 - May 31, 2007) Looking at year to date numbers gives a much more accurate account of the market. 

View the Stats at May’s Market Stats.   You can also view all previous months stats and quarterly stats at THE Resource Center.

On page 3 of 20 we see the year to date sales info.  For SFH’s the number of property sales is down 24.5%, while the median sales price, year to date is $630,000, down .8% from the same time last year.  For condos, the number of sales is down 25.8%, while the median condo price is up 2.5% to $330,000.

On page 4 of 20 the graph shows the trend in the number of sales as we continue our trending decline in the number of sales.

The graph on page 6 of 20 shows the leveling or flattening out trend of sales prices.

On page 6 of 20 we see the median number of Days-On-Market (DOM) for both SFH’s and condos.  Both increased but are still at good levels, as SFH’s stay on the market for an average of 52 days before going into escrow and condos stay on the market an average of 41 days before going into escrow.

On page 14 of 20 we see that inventory increased for both SFH’s and condos.

On page 18 of 20 we see the months of inventory remaining for both SFH’s and condos. This means, if we didn’t bring any more properties on the market, how many months would it take to sell the existing properties for sale.  A balanced market is 6-7 months worth of inventory.  For SFH’s we have 8 months of inventory and for condos there is 7.1 months of inventory remaining.

On page 19 of 20 we see the months of invetory remaining breakdown based on area of the island, type of property, and price range.  The $1.0 million plus property price range, there is 17.5 months of inventory.  The next highest is 7.1 months of inventory for the $700-999,000 price range.  The North Shore and Windward Oahu top the charts for SFH’s months of inventory remaining.

In other news:

As seen on the Today Show, Honolulu was voted the Top City In The US To Raise A Family.

Have you ever wondered if investing in Oahu real estate is actually a better investment than other options?  I compared the historical info of buying a home on Oahu as an investment and compared it to two other investment options.  Check out the results.

Have you wondered when the housing troubles on the mainland will end?  The end may be in sight.

Talk about a creative way of selling your home.  Have you ever thought about raffling your home off?  Well….it is being done now!

Do you want an emotional roll-coaster ride of ups and downs and a headache due to confusion? All you have to do is listen to or read the various reports on this months housing statistics.  They are all over the place with their reporting.

Why do I say this?  Well, the Honolulu Advertiser reported in their headline: Oahu Median Home Prices Down 3.9% in April.  I heard another report on the radio that said, “Home Prices Are Up $11,000 from last month.”  Now that doesn’t make since, does it?

The Honolulu Advertiser compared the Median Price this month to the Median Price in April of 2007 which was $665,00. 

The Radio was comparing Median Home Prices of this month to last month.

So which is more accurate? Neither.  Comparing one month to another month in separate years, is obviously not as accurate as comparing several consecutive months of data in two separate years.  What I like to look at is the “Year-To-Date” numbers.  What has gone on from the beginning of the 2008 to present compared to the same time in 2007.  Here are the Statistics for April 2008.

On page 3 of 20 we have the Year-To-Date numbers: The median sales price for a single family home on Oahu Year-To-Date is $625,000 compared to the same time last year which was $630,000.  That is a .8% decline. 

The number of sales is a different story as single family home sales are off by 23%.

For condos The Year-To-Date median sales price is up 2.2% to $329,000, however the number of sales are off by 24.7%.

On page 7 of 20 the median number of days-on-market was 43 days for SFH’s and 33 for condos.  Those are very good numbers. Better than I had expected.

On page 14 of 20 we have the inventory of active listings.  We see SFH inventory increased slightly and condos did so as well.

The big number is the Months-of-Inventory-Remaining. This. of course, is if we didn’t bring anymore properties on the market, how long would it take to sell all of the inventory.  Keep in mind 6-7 months of inventory is a balanced market.  Since our numbers of sales increased last month and this month, the months of inventory remaining dropped back down to the balanced market level.  For SFH there are 6.9 months of inventory remaining and for condos there are 6.7 months of inventory remaining.

You can also read Harvey Shapiro’s Article on this months stats.

Median prices paid for Oahu properties in April were $639,000 for single family homes and $327,000 for condominiums.  Note that these prices have been quite stable, unlike many Mainland markets, particularly in California. The medians for the entire first four months of 2008 are $625,000 and $329,000, almost the same as the same time period in 2007.

To view all past market stats go to The Resource Center.

The stats are out for March.  We have slowed down but prices are still holding steady.  These are interesting times.  These times give you more properties to choose from and more negotiating ability than ever before. The good news for sellers is, from an overall island wide price standpoint, prices haven’t gone down, but there are less homes selling.  Read Oahu Home Prices Dip, Sales Down 14.5% (sales are actually flat when looking at year to date numbers of 2007 and 2008) and Harvey Shapiro’s March Housing Statistics article.

View this months stats by going to March 2008 Stats.  You can view all previous stats in the Resource Center of my website.

On page 3 of 20 we see the year-to-date numbers.  The number of sales for SFH’s are down 22.2% year-to-date, however median SFH prices are the exact same at $620,000.  For condos the number of sales are down 23.8%, however the median condo price is up 3.1% to $330,000.

On page 4 of 20 the number of SFH sales were more this month than the previous 6 months.  there were 282 sales of SFH’s. Condo sales were up from 321 sales last month to 392 sales.

On page 6 of 20 the median sales price this month for a SFH on Oahu was $628,000 and for condos was $329,300.

On page 7 of 20 the median number of Days-On-Market (DOM) was down for SFH’s and Condos.  SFH’s have a median DOM of 47 days, down from 59 days last month.  COndos have a median DOM of 39 days, down from 50 last month.

On page 14 of 20 shows the Inventory of Active Listings.  For SFH’s there were 1,919 SFH’s for sale, roughly the same as last month.  For condos the inventory built by about about 100 condos to 2,581.

On page 18 of 20 we see the Months of Inventory Remaining, meaning, if we didn’t bring anymore homes on the market, how long would it take to sell all of those homes. A balanced market is 6-7 months of inventory.  For SFH’s on Oahu the months of inventory remaing is 11.8.  For condos the months of inventory remaining is 8.0 months.  Lets see if this stays the same next month.  I bet it goes down.

On page 19 of 20 we see the Months of Inventory Remaining broken down by type of property, price range and location on the island.  The numbers here have definitely gone up for SFH’s.  More than $1.0 million homes have 28.6 months of inventory.  For homes in the $700-1.0 million homes we have 12.6 months of inventory.  For homes in East Oahu we have 14 months of inventory.  For condos the $1.0 million plus condos have 11 months of inventory. North Shore condos still top the list at 19 months on inventory.

Let me know your thoughts!

Here are another set of market stats for Oahu’s housing market.  Definitely some interesting info here.  To begin with, the number of sales this month are off significantly, but the sales prices are holding steady.  The number of new listings that have come on the market have also declined.  The market usually speeds up at this time of the year, both with new listings and with the number of transactions.  Part of the problem may be a lack of inventory to choose from, as Buyer’s are willing to wait for that right property to come available.  I would tend to believe the major factor in the lack of sales is due to all of the negative economic news on the mainland, that makes people hesitant.  The stock market got kicked in the teeth this week, thus helping improve interest rates.

Feel free to check out these articles from the local newspapers: Oahu Home Sales Slow from the Honolulu Star Bulletin and Sales Drop By 40%, Prices Relatively Stable from the Honolulu Advertiser.  Read Harvey Shapiro’s Febuary Stats Summary as well. View this months market stats by clicking HERE.

It’s clear that prices are still holding up,” Shapiro said. “The single-family home price dropped below 2005 levels, but it was only a thousand below. We are much more stable than many markets on the mainland. Hawaii is still a good place to invest.

To access all past market stats and quarterly market stats, visit The Resource Center. 

Lets look at the numbers:

On page 3 of 20, the year to date number of sales island wide for SFH’s is down 27% and the year to date number of sales for condos is down 21.3%.  The median price of a SFH is down 1.6% and for condos is up 3.1%.

On page 4 of 20 the number of sales for this past month was down significantly for SFH’s to 163 homes sold and for condos remained roughly the same as last month.

On page 6 of 20 the median sales price this month for SFH’s was $599,000, essentially flat.  For condos the median sales price was up to $335,000.

On page 7 of 20 shows the median number of Days-On-Market (DOM) that a property is listed for before going into escrow.  For SFH’s that number stayed roughly the same at 59 days and increased for condos to 50 days.

On page 11 of 20 the number of new listings brought onto the market for SFH’s dropped by almost 100 to 565 and for condos dropped to 787.

On page 14 of 20 the inventory increased slightly for both SFH’s and condos.

On page 18 of 20 the months of inventory remaining (How long it will take to sell all of the homes currently for sale on the market, assuming we don’t bring anymore on the market) increased to 8.4 months for SFH’s and 7.6 for condos. 

Page 19 of 20 breaks down the months of inventory remaining based on the type of property, location on the island, and price range.

Lets see how the next few months pan out.

For the latest article from my blog visit High Cost Mortgages Just Got Cheaper.

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It is that time again. No..I don’t mean tax time.  Market stats time.  So here we are with another set of data to go through.  You can view the full market stats by clicking here.  To view all past market stats and the quarterly stats as well go to The Resource Center.

Feel free to check out the articles from the local news papers by reading, Oahu’s Housing Price Median Still $600,000 in the Honolulu Advertiser, Oahu’s Median Home Resale Price Is Flat In January in the Honolulu Advertiser, and Oahu Homes Sales Continue Slump in the Honolulu Star Bulletin.

Helping sustain home prices is a state economy that continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace, as well as low unemployment, rising personal income, limited new-home construction and demand from out-of-state retirees and investors.

Barring some reason for major population loss on O’ahu, home prices are forecast to remain comparatively stable, with only small declines, if any, said Paul Brewbaker, chief economist at Bank of Hawaii.

On page 4 of 20 the number of SFH and condo sales dropped again this month.  Keep in mind, January sales data is December escrows.  How many times have you wanted to move during the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas.  Not fun!  Though the numbers are lower than the January 2007 numbers for both SFH’s and Condos.

On page 6 of 20 the median sales price for SFH’s is $600,000, down from $610,000 the previous month, but the exact same price as January of 2007.  The median sales price for a condo is $324,000, up from $320,000 in January of 2007.  If you look at the trend for condo sales the past year the floating range is between $320,000 and $330,000 consistently.

On page 7 of 20 the median number of Days-On-Market (DOM) decreased for condos from 47 days to 42 days.  The median number of DOM for SFH’s increased from 51 to 61 days.  These are both very healthy.  That is roughly two months or less.

On page 14 of 20 the inventory of active listings stayed almost the same for SFH’s and condos for this month with 1,876 SFH’s and 2,349 condos actively on the market. This is good.  You would expect to see people putting hteir homes on the market at the same rate and home inventory increasing, due to the slowdown in the number of sales, but this shows that, not only have buyers slowed down, but sellers slowed down.  I call it the seasonal effect.  It is the was the holidays and we are now getting back into the new year.

On page 18 of 20 we have the Months of Inventory Remaining.  This means if we didn’t bring anymore homes on the market, how long would it take to sell all of the properties.  For SFH’s it is 7.8 months and for condos it is 6.7 months.

On page 19 of 20 we see the breakdown by type of property, price range and geographic area.  The $1.0 million plus SFH’s have 15 months of inventory available.  The North Shore alone has 19.4 months of inventory.  Below $1.0 million the inventory is roughly half that or less.  For condos, the $500,000 or higher condo price range has 10.2 months of inventory and the North Shore is king with 53 months of inventory.  There was one condo sale on the North Shore and 53 active listings.

The economist still say we should hold our price valuations.  I will continue to monitor the number of sales and the New Listing Activity to see where we sit with supply and demand. Feel free to read Harvey’s Blog Post on the January Stats.

Harvey Shapiro, research analyst for the Honolulu Board of Realtors, said that if mortgage rates continue to trend downward, it will make financing for those who can qualify much less costly.  Also, the weaker dollar could attract new demand from overseas purchasers, Shapiro said.  Ishii said buyers have the best selection that they have had since August 2006.

Here is another great article explaining how mortgage interest rates effect buying power. 

If a household could afford a monthly payment of $3,000 and the mortgage rate they can get is 5.5%, the purchase price, working backward, would be $660,500, based on normal lending assumptions like a 20% down payment, etc.

I then looked at the effect that various changes in rates would have on the price. If the mortgage rate increased to 6.0% and the family’s payment budget remained at $3,000 per month, the computed purchase price would decrease to $625,500. In other words, a 0.5% increase in the mortgage rate would diminish purchasing power by $35,000. When I went in the opposite direction and lowered the borrowing rate by 0.5%, to 5.0%, buying power rose by $38,000, to just under $700,000.

If the interest rate went up .5%, then the sales price would have to decrease by 5% to have the same mortgage payment.   Our prediction for 2008 is to be flat with our sales price.  Since mortgage rates appear to beheading a little lower (already extremely low) this would be a great time to buy.  This is another reason I say you should look at interest rates just as closely as prices. 

If you would like a great lender to speak to or would like to get Pre-Qualified or Pre-Approved, contact me and I can put you in touch with the best.

Here are Harvey Shapiro’s breakdown of numbers by neighborhoods for Oahu. 

Hawaii Kai

Kailua

Ewa Plain

Waikiki Condos

Drum-roll please:

The final numbers are in for 2007. There were 3,627 single family home sales on O`ahu that were recorded during the year and 5,499 condominiums. These figures are decreases from 2006 by 10.2% and 13.8%, respectively. Overall sales in 2007 were 9,126, a slippage of 12.4% from the 10,421 sales recorded in 2006. Sales reached their peak in 2005 at 12,607 units.

Median prices on O`ahu continued to rise. The median price paid for a single family home in 2007 was $643,500. This was a 2.1% increase from 2006 when the median price was $630,000. The 2007 condominium price was $325,000, an increase of 4.8% since 2006.

Since 2008 is expected to have between 8,000-9,000 sales, we aren’t far off from the numbers for 2007.  Couple that with lower interest rates and it would look like a good time to consider your buying needs. Any thoughts?

As I have always mentioned, I have triedto put this blog together tying in all of the pieces of local and national real estate news so you can view it in one place.  I appreciate those of you letting me know I have slowed down with my posts and you want more info.  So here goes..

When getting information, you always get it straight from the horses…….um…mouth.

Well, the horse has spoken.  Harvey Shapiro, Oahu economist, has made his prediction on the 2008 Oahu housing market.  Looks like we are in for more of the same….and that’s good news.  What are your thoughts?