The state DBEDT (Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism came out with their annual forecast for the Hawaii economy.  The overall opinion is that Hawaii’s economy is resilient and sturdy.  The two articles have similar headlines, but the Honolulu Advertiser article, Hawaii Economy Sturdy, Experts Say appears to be much more negative and doesn’t follow the title of the headline.  The Pacific Business News article, DBEDT Expects Hawaii Economy To Grow Slowly In 08′ And 09′, sticks more to the numbers, and highlights the annual report.

State economists said they expect Hawaii’s economy to experience moderate but slower growth this year and in 2009. Personal income, total wage and salary jobs, and state gross domestic product are forecast to show some growth over the next few years, however the growth rates have decreased from the previous forecast. She said the state is still seeing job growth, with the number up 0.6 percent through the first half of the year. Unemployment, while higher than recent years, was below the national rate of 5.7 percent.

Highlights of the report include:

• The forecasts for real personal income growth to increase 0.4 percent for 2008 and 0.8 percent for 2009.
• The inflation forecast is expected to rise to 4.5 percent for this year and 3.5 percent for next year.
• Hawaii’s real GDP growth is now projected to grow 1.9 percent in 2008 and 2 percent in 2009, down slightly from the government’s previous forecast.

Paul Brewbaker, chief economist for Bank of Hawaii, said there are comparisons that can be drawn with Hawai’i’s downturns of the early 1980s and ’90s, but that as he looks at the data he is struck by the economy’s resilience. For example, there are fewer homes being built in Hawai’i’s civilian community, but a federal government program to privatize military housing is offsetting that, he said.

He said other noteworthy points include local housing prices remaining stronger than those in Mainland markets smacked by the mortgage credit crunch and the state’s ability to ramp up infrastructure investments because it has a strong credit rating.

“There are things that are way worse than anyone thought,” Brewbaker said. “Despite all of that, things are kind of holding together. It’s actually not as bad as some people think.”