We finally come to the end of a challenging year.  At the beginning of 2009 things did not look good at all as the economy appeared to be in big trouble and confidence was the lowest it had been in a long time.  I never would have thought we would be where we are right now. 

Looking back at 2009 we see that sales actually started to pick up from it’s lows in February and have been on the rise ever since.  Prices did drop in 2009, however inventory has dropped by half, there are fewer new listings coming on the market every month, as I mentioned before the number of sales continue to increase, and the Months-Of-Inventory-Remaining has dropped significantly.  That makes for definite shift in the direction of our real estate market.  Check out the December Market Stats.

On page 3 of 20 we see the Year-To-Date (YTD) numbers for 2009 compared to 2008.  The number of sales for Single Family Homes (SFHs) in 2009  ended down 5.7% compared to 2008 sales.  What is more interesting is that we started out  January of 09 down over 50% in the number of sales compared to January 08.  We have really picked up in the number of sales to catch up to last years sales.  In fact,  for the last four months of the year our number of sales were up 26% from the same period of 08. SFH prices ended up down 7.9% for the year for a median sales price of $575K.   
For condos we were down 11.8% in the number of sales. Condo sales also increased significantly over the last four months of the year.  As for condo prices, they ended up down 7.1% for the year 2009 compared to 2008, ending with a median price of  $302,500.

On page 7 of 20 we have the Median Number of Days-On-Market (DOM), or the length of time a property is on the market before it gets an accepted contract for sale. The Median DOM for SFHs in December was 34 days, down from 65 days in December of 2008.  For condos the Median DOM for condos in December was 36 days, down from 53 days in December 08.

On page 11 of 20 we have the Number of New Residential Listings. This shows how many new listings come on the market each month.  As you can see we have been on a steady decline.  There were 258 new SFH listings in December of 09, down from 325 new listings in December of 08.  For condos, there were 381 new listings in December 08, down from 461 in December 08.

On page 14 of 20 we have the Inventory of Active Listings, or the number of properties currently available for sale on the market (Inventory).  This has dropped significantly this year.  There were 1,100 SFHs available for sale in December of 09, down from 2,033 in December of 08.  For condos, there were 1,588 available for sale in December of 09, down from 2,634 in December of 08. 

On page 18 we have the Months Of Inventory Remaining (MOIR).  If we didn’t bring anymore properties on the market, how long would it take to sell all of the inventory.  A balanced market is considered to be 6-7 MOIR.  This has dropped significantly as well.  There was 4.2 MOIR in December 09, down from 12 MOIR in December 08.  For condos there was 4.6 MOIR in December 09, down from 13.1 MOIR in December 08.

On page 19 you see the Months Of Inventory Remaining (MOIR) broken down based on type of property, price and location on the island. SFHs under $1 million have a low MOIR as well as condos under $500K.

With these numbers, 2010 should be an exciting year.  With the fact that sales are increasing, fewer homes are coming on the market, inventory has decreased, I think it would be hard to see much downward price pressure this upcoming year.  Mortgage Interest rates could be the bigger story of 2010.  Let’s see how things unfold.