If you would like to view November’s entire 19 page report, click on November Stats.  You can view all previous monthly and quarterly stats at THE Resource Center.

“I’m sticking my neck out and calling January 2009 the bottom of this cycle,” Brewbaker said. This is not the first time Brewbaker has gone out on a limb. He raised eyebrows in 2003 with a prediction that Oahu’s median home price would surpass $600,000 in the last cycle. In fact, the market topped out just shy of $645,000 in 2007, he said. Brewbaker said Oahu’s housing market has bounced off an artificially low bottom associated with the financial panic of 2008 and has begun to “rebound into a stabilization phase that will run through 2012.”

Market Stats:

 

Page 3 of 19 shows the Year-To-Date-Numbers.  You can see that Single Family Homes (SFHs) are down 7% in price and 9% in the number of sales compared to the same time as last year.  This is amazing considering at the beginning of the year SFH sales were down 46.%5 and prices were down 10.1%.  The first quarter was dreadful and then the market started picking up steam.  Condos are down 6.8% in price and 15.5% in the number of sales.  Condos also started off the year down 50.9% in the number of sales and 5.9% in price.

 

Page 4 of 19 shows the number of sales for the month of November are WAY up compared to the same month a year ago. There were 249 SFH sales in November 09, compared to 170 in November 08.  That is a 46% increase.  For condos the number is even greater, with 407 sales in November 09 compared to 201 in November 08.  That is a 102% increase.

Page 6 of 19 shows that even though sales are increasing, prices are still soft and trending sideways.  The median sales price for SFH’s was $590K in November 09, while the median sales price for condos was $320K.

Page 7 of 19 shows the median number of Days-On-Market (DOM), or the number of days a property is listed for sale before going into escrow.  These numbers dropped for both SFH’s and condos.  SFH’s DOM was 42 days in November 09, down from 52 days in October 09 and 57 days in November 08.  For condos, the median number of DOM was 32 days in November 09, down from 47 days in October 08 and 68 days in November 08.

 

Page 11 of 19 shows the number of new listings coming on the market.  The trend continues with fewer properties coming on the market.  This is not surprising since we are around the holiday time, but with the number of sales increasing it does have a downward affect of the available inventory to choose from.

 

Page 14 of 19 shows the Inventory of Active Listings.  This is big, as inventory continues to decrease.  Just look at the graph for what inventory is doing.  Inventory for SFHs (number of homes on the market for sale) in November 09 was 1,199 compared to 2,096 in November of 2008.  That is almost half the amount of available homes for sale.  For condos there were 1,749 available in November, compared to 2,665 available in November 2008.

 

Page 18 of 19 is a big eye opener as well.  This shows the Months-Of-Inventory-Remaining (MOIR), also described as, if we didn’t bring anymore homes on the market, how long would it take to sell all the homes currently available for sale.  A balanced market is considered 6-7 months of inventory remaining. Looking at the graph it looks like someone climbed a latter at the beginning of this year and then jumped off once they reached the top.  You can see inventory for SFHs increased from 2 MOIR in mid 2005 to it’s peak of over 15 MOIR in the beginning of 2009 and has since plummeted to it’s current location of 4.8 MOIR.  For condos we see the same effect of inventory as it increased from it’s lows of 1.2 MOIR in mid 2005 to it’s peak of 16.1 MOIR in early 2009 and now has plummeted to it’s current location of 4.3 MOIR.  This should help keep our market well balanced.  There is less for buyers to choose from right now.

 

On page 19 of 19 we see the Months Of Inventory Remaining (MOIR) broken down by price range, type of property and location on the island.  There are some interesting numbers as SFHs under $1.0mil are below 5 months of inventory and condos under $500K are hot, esp in the $300-499K range (2.7 MOIR)